The southwest monsoon has made its entrance on the southern coast of India, particularly in Kerala, eight days ahead of the usual schedule. This early arrival, recorded on May 24, marks the earliest onset since 2009 and is expected to provide significant benefits for farmers and the agricultural sector as it coincides with the end of an intense heatwave that has affected many regions.
The monsoon season is crucial for India, contributing approximately 70% of the annual rainfall necessary for agriculture, which is vital to the country’s economy valued at $4 trillion. Nearly half of the country’s farmland relies on these seasonal rains, particularly those areas without irrigation systems, to support the cultivation of staple crops such as rice, corn, and sugarcane.
Typically, the monsoon rains begin around June 1 in Kerala, gradually spreading to other parts of India by mid-July. However, this year, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported that the rains have already reached Kerala and extended to parts of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and the northeastern state of Mizoram.
Forecasts indicate favorable conditions for the monsoon to expand further into additional states including Goa, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and West Bengal over the coming days. This shift is anticipated to allow farmers in southern and central India to begin sowing summer crops earlier than they typically would.
Ashwini Bansod, a commodities research vice president at Phillip Capital India, emphasized that the combination of excess pre-monsoon rainfall and an early monsoon onset could enhance soil moisture levels, leading to potentially higher crop yields this season.
In 2023, the monsoon’s arrival was recorded on May 30, and last year’s overall rainfall was the most significant since 2020, aiding recovery efforts from previous drought conditions. The IMD has also predicted above-average rainfall for the current monsoon season, which is defined as between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) over the four-month period.
